Florida Senate Race Poll: Final Stetson Survey Has Moody at 49% and Nixon at 45% as Both Statewide Races Tighten
Stetson University's final pre-election poll, conducted Oct. 26-30, found Sen. Ashley Moody leading Angie Nixon 49% to 45% and Byron Donalds leading David Jolly 51% to 45% for governor — margins roughly six and eight points narrower than the same pollster found in mid-October.
Florida's two statewide races head into Election Day closer than they looked two weeks ago, according to the final pre-election survey from Stetson University's Center for Public Opinion Research, conducted Oct. 26 through Oct. 30 among 861 registered voters. In the U.S. Senate special election, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon 49% to 45%, with 3% undecided and 3% preferring another candidate. In the governor's race, Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 51% to 45%, with about 2% undecided.
The movement is the story: compared with Stetson's mid-October survey, Donalds' margin has narrowed by roughly six points and Moody's by roughly eight. The poll also found Republicans leading the generic congressional ballot by only 3 points, and none of the three proposed constitutional amendments on Tuesday's ballot reaching the 60% support they would need to pass. About 55% of the likely voters in the sample said they had already cast a ballot, so the estimates combine votes already cast with the intentions of voters who have not voted yet.
The survey interviewed 1,000 Florida adults through an online panel and weighted the results by age, gender, race, ethnicity, education and region, with electoral results based on the 861 registered voters and each respondent's modeled probability of voting. Palm Beach County voters will see both races on their own ballots Tuesday: polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Nov. 3, and mail ballots must reach the Supervisor of Elections by 7 p.m.
